15.5 Million Tourists in 2016
15.5 Million Tourists in 2016
NBTC Holland Marketing expects inbound tourism to grow by approximately three per cent in the Netherlands in 2016. This means that some 15.5 million foreign tourists will stay in the Netherlands. Absolute growth figures are highest in the neighbouring countries. Over 50% of the expected increase of half a million visitors originates from Germany and Belgium.
NBTC Holland Marketing expects inbound tourism to grow by approximately three per cent in the Netherlands in 2016. This means that some 15.5 million foreign tourists will stay in the Netherlands. Absolute growth figures are highest in the neighbouring countries. Over 50% of the expected increase of half a million visitors originates from Germany and Belgium.
Growth over average in first four months
Preliminary figures from Statistics Netherlands on the first four months of 2016 show an increase in inbound tourism of no less than eight per cent compared to the same period last year. This may be due to the economy that is picking up in many of the countries of origin in combination with relatively cheap euros. Besides, the exhibition linked to the Jeroen Bosch Year has attracted many visitors and the number of flight connections with the Netherlands has also increased.
Adjusted forecast
NBTC decided to investigate the forecasts that were published earlier this year in more detail for various reasons. Not only was the increase in inbound tourism above average in the first four months, but also comments were made by the tourist sector – in particular in Amsterdam – and we experienced international instability that was caused by imminent terrorism and insecurity due to Brexit. It is expected that growth of inbound tourism will eventually keep up with the forecast at the start of the year (+3%). However, some shifts will occur in the various countries of origin.
Europe
In the first quarter of this year, the Netherlands benefitted more than other countries did from growth in the neighbouring countries Belgium, Germany and the United Kingdom. These countries make up a large proportion of the mix of countries of origin; over 50% of the total numbers of visitors lives in Germany, Belgium and the United Kingdom. It is expected that growth of inbound tourism from Germany (+5%) and Belgium (+5%) will continue up to the end of the year. In spite of Brexit, it is still expected that British tourism to the Netherlands will increase slightly throughout the year 2016 (+3%).
America
We expect growth from the Americas, except for Brazil (-18% due to economic and political insecurity). Visitor numbers from the United States appear to be on the rise in 2016 (+5%). Although Americans were expected to be reluctant to travel for security reasons (Travel Alert), the favourable economic outlook as well as cheap euros and relatively cheap airline tickets have a rather positive impact on travelling to Europe.
Asia
With regard to Asia, NBTC mainly expects growth in inbound tourism from Indonesia and India. Absolute numbers from these countries may be limited, but growth rates are huge at twenty and thirty per cent, respectively. A major cause is the increased flight capacity from these countries into the Netherlands. Expectations for Japan (-10%) and China (-5%) are negative. International instability and fear of attacks in Europe are key reasons. However, also the introduction of the biometric Schengen visa has a moderating effect, mainly on visitors from China.
Impact of international development
In spite of current international developments, inbound tourism is an expanding market. Research into the largest impact of these developments on various target groups and market sectors shows that they may largely affect long-distance markets (Japan and China), city products (mainly Amsterdam), group travel (tourists with a preference for certainty and security) and first time travellers (who visit mainly iconic sites that are more vulnerable in respect of security). We will continue to monitor developments, also based on the knowledge and expertise of our branches, so we can adjust to changes if so required. Monitoring is also crucial to be able to implement our strategy for the future together with our partners. This is aimed at directing growth in order to promote matters such as distribution in time and space, in order to contribute to the enhancement of regional economies.
